没有怜悯/没有恶意
波动性的埃隆·马斯克过山车
马斯克在Twitter中的股份是为社交网络带来新的方向,还是特斯拉首席执行官的另一个毫无意义的干扰?
ed注意:这篇文章是最初出版, Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal推文马斯克决定不加入Twitter董事会。
desperate to recapture a delinquent attention cycle埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)周一宣布,这是战争的流动,他是Twitter中最大的股东,持有9.2%(更正:9.1%)的股份。@elonmusk之前已经拖了我(即,在……Twitter上叫我名字)……但这就像角色扮演。
背景故事
在二十年的大部分时间里,我一直在公司(即参与价值800万美元的投资,并倡导在公开交易公司进行变革)的激进职位。我在七家上市公司的董事会中任职。在2019年12月,我在Twitter中获得了股份(大约是Elon所有权的大小),并写了一份给董事会的公开信,强调该公司缺乏创新和较弱的股东回报,并呼吁他们取代兼职首席执行官杰克·多尔西(Jack Dorsey)。我没有收到任何回应。令人震惊的人。尽管董事长的儿子向我发了推文,我不应该对Sheryl Sandberg如此苛刻。所以……有。几个月后,大型激进主义者基金会埃利奥特(Elliott Management)打电话给我,并说他们正在用20亿美元的笔签署我的信。他们购买了该公司的重要股份,并在创纪录的时间内获得了两个董事会席位,因为董事意识到自己的行为像si夫vs.实际受托人。一旦埃利奥特(Elliott)有代表在董事会上,@Jack就消失了。使它看起来好像是他的想法,这只是一个光学和节奏的问题 - 自我仍然可以推动大多数围绕公司治理的决定。(和战争。)
埃利奥特(Elliott)完成了Twitter的股东和公司治理,这是一项服务,提倡首席执行官应该全职工作的疯狂想法。@Jack是Block的出色首席执行官,但他是Twitter上卑鄙的缺席父亲。
The Song Remains the Same
但是,Twitter的基本问题仍然存在,到今年年初,其股票已退回到40美元以下。我再次开始与资金会面,讨论担任立场并提倡变革。我的音调:Twitter是历史上最重要的产品之一(实时新闻来源,全球通信平台),但它仍然是一项乏味的投资。
该公司在广告支持的媒体的污水池中陷入困境,牺牲了质量来追求利润,这将永远不会意识到。Twitter在数字景观中定义了“子量表”一词,其中三个巨人指挥了80美分的数字美元:Google,Meta和Amazon。
Twitter无法获利的估值反映。1月下旬,在埃隆(Elon)开始购买之前,该股票的交易价格与Meta和Snap的折扣很大。
What to Do
Twitter应该转到订阅模型(#FuckingObvious)。企业用户和具有大量关注的用户将为收到的价值支付一小部分。我有很长的时间提倡对于此模型;通过将公司的收入来源从广告商转移到用户,订阅将经济激励措施与用户体验相一致,而不是用户利用。这导致了无数的好处,这就是为什么经常性收益业务获得更大的增长和保留和更大的估值的原因。
Nothing better illustrates the value of Twitter to its users than Tesla. The carmaker spends almost nothing on advertising (GM spends $2+ billion per year), yet it has built the best brand in the industry. This is a function of performance (outstanding products, exceeding targets) multiplied by reach. The reach is a function of Elon’s 80.9 million PR agents (i.e., his Twitter followers). The social network could charge Mr. Musk $10 million a month and — after making a series of ad hominem attacks on the board/company/CEO — he would pay it. Nearly every Fortune 10,000 company and A/B/C list celebrity who uses the platform as a real-time communications tool would pay fees scaled by follower count.
In addition, ad-supported media is what drives the enragement cycle, the bots, and the misinformation plaguing Twitter. Cleaning that up would be good for business, and for the commonwealth. False stories on Twitter are70% more likely被转发的比真实的速度要快六倍。
在这个音高的基础上,我的资本软折了。我们正在处理这个疯狂的事情,称为SEC规则和法规。我们将如何构建特殊用途的车辆?如果一个资本来源提供超过50%的投资,那么Hart-Scott-Rodino的要求是什么?我的背景是否会提倡变更意味着我们需要提交13D(活动)与13G(被动)?你知道,“法律”。
到4月初,我们花了一个月的时间来解决这些问题。但是TWTR突然流泪,两周内增长了20%。市场已经意识到鲸鱼在表面下移动的形状。我的团队推测另一个大型激进基金正在积累职位,我们更新了模型。然后鲸鱼被破坏了。
输入Elon
To be clear, there’s a lot to like here. Elon correctly saw the opportunity and seized it. Twitter was dramatically undervalued and should be better. And the board was smart to embrace him and give him a seat. The easiest way to silence an activist is to make them an insider. Corporate governance is out of fashion in an era of dual-class public stock and a dangerous diminution of government. But Twitter is 2 for 2 in recent months, showing Jack the door and putting a large shareholder on the board.
In addition, Musk is a genius. He leads two companies that are simultaneously revolutionizing important industries. Tesla makes the world’s best cars and has accelerated industry adoption of electric vehicles by年。The same day he disclosed his Twitter stake, Teslaannouncedrecord shipments. But in my view, Tesla isn’t even his most impressive company. SpaceX’s reusable rockets are fundamentally changing the economics of space hauling, core to our future infrastructure. In sum, we have the preeminent entrepreneur of his generation, who’s taken a seat on the board of a company that needs to command the space it occupies.
玻璃半空
但…
For starters, Musk’s track record is mixed when it comes to errant distractions from the businesses he’s responsible for. Over the past several years, he’s been reckless, toying with companies, cryptocurrencies, and technologies that captured his fleeting attention only to move on when the next shiny object caught his gaze.
To date, Elon’s stated objectives for Twitter are vague, and clearly bullshit. His main beef with Twitter, it appears, is there’s too much moderation.
从哪里开始?一些基本法:言论自由是essential to a functioning democracy, but free speech is a protection from政府语音的限制。言论自由不会限制Twitter……它可以保护Twitter。严格遵守言论自由的原则意味着Twitter塑造了自己的声音,如果决定说,这不会放大仇恨言论,虚假言论或呼吁起义的言论。想要该内容的用户可以在其他地方找到它,例如4chan或Truth Social(不是真的…doa)。言论自由原则是政府principles, just as censorship is政府行动。其他一切都在竞争演讲。
而且,Twitter是一个重要的沟通空间,但是“言论自由原则”和“民主”并不需要甚至暗示Twitter让任何人说什么。相反,它们为合理的节制而苦恼。不受约束的论坛不是免费的,这是暴民统治的邀请。如果Twitter是“事实上的公共广场”,那就是因为该网站为内容提供了缓和,尽管它努力做到了。几乎没有人想在Twitter上不受约束的演讲。想象一下您的电子邮件收件箱,但没有垃圾邮件过滤器……次280。适度是4chan每月获得2000万用户的原因,而Twitter每月获得2.17亿用户day。
实际上,埃隆(Elon)对“言论自由”的兴趣主要是关于恐吓记者,他们不会成为他的速记员毫无根据claims。他的解决方案是人们可以对新闻工作者进行投票或向下投票的网站,人群的魔力可以解决媒体。他想称呼它Pravda。今天,Pravda, like so many Elon missives, is long forgotten, and Elon’s answer to the problems facing Twitter is: “Something…某物…open source。”
这回应了long-standing interest@Jack和其他在Twitter上的其他人,包括新的首席执行官Parag Agrawal,在未来版本的Twitter中,该版本是“分散的”。如果可以的话,Web3 Twitter。缺乏细节 - 呕吐嗡嗡的单词沙拉更容易。用户将能够配置自己的节制,没有集中式权威,所有相同的加密WEB3分节化的BS,这导致了很少的实际产品或服务,但已为VCS和(其他)Grifters获得了数十亿美元。数亿个Twitter用户都将使用个人审核算法修补的想法就像用手持电话直接连接到区块链的人一样的可能性。
向外部聚会开放Twitter可能会很强大,并且有可能使Twitter的不同风味进化的新体系结构。那是背后的想法蓝天,Twitter创建和资金。但是a)Twitter已经在追求这一点,因此他们不需要Elon;b)没有适度的Twitter的商业上可行版本。无论Bluesky出现了什么,它仍然需要过滤内容并进行判断电话或系统崩溃的集中实体。
狂野的西部
马斯克(Musk)呼吁狂野的西部版本的Twitter呼吁,这并不奇怪,因为它与新兴山谷的意识形态I标签“ Takerist”一致。接受者认为英联邦是个人丰富和娱乐的狩猎场,而不是投资于相互繁荣的社区。社区的良好品味 - 道路和冲锋站,电动汽车税收抵免,湾流650 ERS的空中交通管制,研究生工程师的公立大学 - 没有卡路里 - 税收,法律,人类的基本喜剧。
真实的形式
我们发现埃隆(Elon)是周一早上最大的股东,因为那时他按照收购超过5%的上市公司的任何人的要求向SEC披露了自己的股份。只有埃隆(Elon)提交了错误的表格,他迟到了将近两个星期。他为“被动”投资者提出了表格 - 如果您一直在与首席执行官交谈在过去的几周中关于加入董事会和更改产品,您不是“被动”的投资者。
Elon filed the correct form (Schedule 13D) the next day, but it requires more fulsome disclosures, which revealed he had crossed the 5% threshold on March 14. Meaning he’d been obligated to disclose his stake back on March 24. By illegally concealing his stake for 11 days, Musk was able to continue buying shares from sellers who didn’t know he was accumulating a huge position. Had he disclosed his shares properly on March 24, TWTR would have shot up 25% then, instead of on April 4, and the shares he bought subsequently would have garnered selling shareholders approximately $150 million more. That’s fraud, and while I have increasingly less confidence in the SEC, Congress has recentlybeefed up它寻求违反证券法的不义之处的侵犯的权力。股东诉讼也可能发生。
Even if the SEC acts, $150 million is immaterial to Elon. On a relative basis, his entire $2.5 billion investment in Twitter is about the price of a MacBook for the average household. A $150 million fine is buying an extra charger. Takerists such as Elon are exempt from the law — they can buy their own. The rest of us would be left with a Musk-flavored Twitter, which would look similar to the replies to his announcement: a septic tank of crypto scams, far-right blather, and screeching wokeism. For all his complaints about “free speech,” Elon has always been able to speak his mind. Or if not, what没有他说?
下一步是什么?
Whatever we think of Elon’s move, he’s made it, and the future of an increasingly important media company is increasingly up to him. He “only” owns 9%, but his influence far exceeds that. Even on a strong board (vs. one that would tolerate a CEO on permanent safari), a mega-billionaire celebrity will command outsized influence.
与埃隆(Elon)的所有事物一样,这是埃隆(Elon)的表演(除非/直到他感到无聊并继续进入下一个闪亮的物体)。流行测验:命名在特斯拉,SpaceX或无聊公司工作的其他人。
埃隆(Elon)撞了股票,但他也可能会取消任何收购保费。他的滑稽动作和财富使他成为人类毒药 - 金融买家和战略收购方都不希望应对他带来的混乱和不可预测的行为。埃隆本人在加入董事会时签署了自己购买的权利。市场感觉到了这些问题,并且在最初的爆炸性收益后,股票开始回来。
Prediction:即使是脆弱的SEC也必须在这里做某事……这将是Twitter板的不受欢迎的注意力。
内在的孩子
20年前,我加入了我的第一个上市公司董事会。我令人讨厌,不断地从廉价的席位中挑剔,更关心获得变革的信誉,而不是提高利益相关者的价值。二十年和七个董事会后,我终于(我认为)接受了成为受托人的意义:代表他人的利益。埃隆(Elon)是其中最出色的产品工程师,也可能是最后一个世纪。一小部分的光彩可能会改变Twitter。风险是,他的捕捞主义,不断的打击和对第一修正案的寒冷可能会推开Twitter。
Twitter’s future now comes down to one question: Can Elon Musk’s inner child develop an outer man?
Life is so rich,
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