Recent market as our anticipation since a week ago, when there is no new narrative, nor new bearish data before, more investors to buy, is also reluctant to sell.Although looks like say nonsense, but the current environment is like that.More bottom at about $26000 of investors continue to wait for BlackRock (BlackRock) can pass the information, and even short-term cannot pass, but because of the profit, so can still some resistance, and high FOMO friend also is same, although may quilt cover, but can still afford loss, coupled with the constant be PUA said that the bull market, may not be able to get off on, so on hold.And need to buy, and the bottom are bought, itself ready to see now is still in wait-and-see, thus has formed a fragile balance, macro effect on the overall risk of the market at present is not large, CPI, PPI, jobless claims the game is whether the fed raising interest rates in July, although a lot of friend 100% think the fed raising interest rates, the market has also expect the fed to raise interest rates, so even if really increases the market reaction is not much, but in fact from June Powell announcement was suspended not skip, game has already started.So now the best solution is waiting and begin to take positions on dips, position control need to be very careful.

With the coming of the new week, the trend of the market have not been any change, the price of the BTC and ETH has always maintained a slight concussion, more investors were focused on BlackRock (BlackRock) and the other Wall Street fund application BTC spot ETF (trust), although sources said this week, the SEC will interview these applications, but in fact the SEC or public meeting is in closed session, although there are money management funds and market related meetings, but the content of the discussion is not about BTC spot ETF (trust), it is about about money market funds raise the deposit reserve a new rules.If the rules according to the proposal passed in December 2021, the new rules will raise funds must be in the form of cash or other assets can be converted into cash quickly to maintain the percentage of total assets, the overnight liquidity increased to 25%, weeks liquidity increased to 50%.If the current assets falls below a specific threshold, the ability to cancel the fund redemption fee or temporary limit redemptions, requires institutions quality funds and tax fund use volatile pricing mechanism.The SEC said, this mechanism forced redemption of shareholders withdraw cost, called on the government funds turned negative in interest rates is converted to a floating net asset value.People speaking is starting from the rule execution, will make the fund's cost is higher, less attractive.Although not necessarily directly affect the BTC spot ETF (trust) application, but reserves are likely to increase pressure on the fund itself.

Adverse as inflation and employment data, U.S. stocks in this week's performance is poor, have encountered the callback, including technology, strong Ai, of course, there are no signs of ending, before we also talk about the rising of the stock market is money overflow capital city can get the opportunity, if stocks are in decline, will choose to enter currency, money will be less, may be a lot of friend think currency and stock market are two different systems and different people in the play, but actually bring liquidity to the market at the heart of the investors or the same, while the currency, can have access to far higher earnings multiples of the stock market, but fell more severe losses, especially in currency, the biggest problem is in addition to half cycle, the other parts of the good bad all by a mouth.Next week will be coming into the earnings season, April in the stock market rally in addition to the rise of Ai is because higher-than-expected earnings against the market has been shaken at the time of bank blasting ray.Technology shares of financial forecast this time also can bring to ignore macro mood short-term fluctuations, for friends to make short-term cash must be attention.Although now in the United States in half a century's biggest inflation and the fed's tough tactics, but in the Ai of subscript since 500 has experienced in recent five years, the strongest in the first half of the 2022 market crash in 2023 still want to copy the short-sellers became the source of anxiety of buying stocks.

Relief is a lot of friend has begun to shift focus from frequent price changes on the trend analysis, macro is an important part of the trend analysis, but today I want to speak but not macro focus, although many friend are concerned with small non-agricultural yesterday, and made their expectations of today's non-agricultural data, think non-agricultural data will greatly by influencing the fed's decision, in turn, affect the change of the market risk, the core logic is right, but for the current currency, is not applicable.Game on the market, finally through the race for liquidity caused a change of mood.Words say a person is, now the main reason for the change the BTC and ETH price not because expectations the fed will raise interest rates, and even the federal reserve to raise interest rates or employment data and not money, the main reason for the price change, and the main reason is because of the poor liquidity, estimate and there are a lot of friend here don't understand, speak and macro correlation is also me, said don't want to close and I, if the macro can determine currency market city now?My answer is that the market is not a dust unchanged, indeed macro for money, have a certain effect, but this effect is based on the base of "enough" will produce results.

Although a lot of friends all think the currency now, already have nothing to do with macroeconomic, but whether it's from liquid or from the emotional side, whether the fed kept attitude towards market tightening it indicates whether or not the overall market environment can be changed, and currency, is also part of the overall market, said that while the person is now BTC and ETH prices did not continue with the tech sync, but that doesn't mean money, can from the macro emotional impact.Today at the fed to disclose the records of the meeting in June, direct influence is the probability of another interest rate rise, probably July peak was more than 90%, and even now are kept at more than 88%.Is concerned with the federal reserve to raise interest rates in July, before we said this problem, when the federal reserve chose a pause and to maintain a period of time (more than one month) have good effect on overall risk market, most of the time, the market risk will be rising power, although not 100%, but it is the majority.And if just a pause (skip) to raise interest rates, so for market risk, the negative effect is greater than the positive role, especially in this time, the risk of the market has been in the game whether the fed will maintain may raise interest rates as a result, 5.25% of the terminal rates until the end of this year, it is interesting to note that some investors and game the fed cut interest rates in July is almost the same people.

When wake up in the morning we found after U.S. stocks opened last night (U.S. holiday, closing in advance, also not open tonight, futures closed early plate) BTC and ETH price has been high, today in the morning especially BTC almost touched on June 23, high, but the change of volume as the vacation less poor, this is the classic liquidity when the change of the lower prices brought about by the slump, but also gain that Wall Street traders, because the market mood in common expectations rise, so before the holiday...

From the middle of June BlackRock (BlackRock) to apply for BTC spot trust is hype, the BTC above prices to rise to $30000, after two weeks until now the price of the BTC to maintain small shocks in this phase, there was no obvious signs of breakthrough, and from the point of trading volume, the incident is the middle of march on April 26, silicon valley bank blasting ray and because tech earnings and regional Banks continuous explosion ray volume brought about by the outbreak, on June 30, even the biggest monthly delivery and quarterly delivery past there is no more than three times the volume, it tells us that a direct result of the current coin, liquidity is still very low.If we pull the time in the far away, you can see in the mean volume last week, almost is the lowest level since 2021, it also illustrates the current money even without leave money, also is in a state of wait-and-see, can be understood as for more money or have completed in the bottom price, or think the price is not the bottom, so cannot ascend to daily trading volume, especially the front analysis over the last three months of high volume components, can be found all of them are driven by events, in line, and not because of the narrative of BTC itself bring more volume.People speaking is a new story someone will buy, when two days after the end of the story a purchase will not be able to continue.

Yesterday, because of the June quarter so stock is not opened, only the stock index futures in operation, compared to the shape of the BTC and ETH better than the nasdaq futures yesterday, especially the pins almost to the $27100 early this morning, the optimistic view now prices have begun to gradually away from the limitation of the biggest pain points Friday delivery options, so far BTC in Friday's biggest weaknesses or $26000, and the spot price has more than 3.5%, and the possibility of continue to expand, if can return to biggest weaknesses in the Friday now also don't know, the key still depends on Thursday price changes, including Beijing time tonight at about 18 gwaihir brad will have a speech, even though he is not in this year's committee, but recently the fed's moves and his expectations have made a lot of overlap, free of friend can listen to it.Speak in brad after 23 PM 45 points and the federal reserve tickets permanent committee Williams public speech, from the last two months of public speech Williams is entering the hawks, although the market continue to raise interest rates for the federal reserve is not now, but the swap traders and think it is possible for July is the last time the fed raising interest rates, yesterday's push in this paper, we also analyzed the pause and skip the difference between interest rates, and the impact on the market, so if you were to skip, blow for the market mood is still to a certain extent, but if does not raise interest rates, July superposition didn't policy-setting meeting in August, is the equivalent of three months there will be no interest rate changes, from the point of historical data, market risk when you pause more than 3 months are almost in a rising trend.

Refer to a lot of content in the morning and found that there is nothing to write, because the current macro aspects Europe and the United States or is in a state of the weekend, the three major stock index futures, though with a little opening decline trend, but for the time being is not serious.Down should be the continuation of the former federal reserve officials over the weekend of July could recovery rate of speech, we also said many times before, this problem is to pause relative to lower interest rates risk market has a positive stimulus, history suggests that if the fed before the next rate signals when selecting a longer...